Italy arrive with markedly better numbers in attack and defence — seven goals for and two conceded versus Serbia's 1–10 goal record — so the simplest line of thought is a straight home win with a clear margin. Italy's forward players have been efficient; their goals-per-game split in the supplied form block points to a team that converts chances and keeps clean sheets (two recorded). That profile supports backing Italy to Win at short odds because the basic probability skew is strong and consistent across previews. A notable tip from apuestasganadas also backs an Italy Asian handicap -1 at 1.65, reflecting a common expectation that Italy will need more than a narrow one-goal success to feel comfortable.
The scoring angle opens a different pathway. Italy's +5 goal difference and Serbia's -9 suggest an asymmetric goals market. Italy's attack should produce opportunities; Serbia's defence has leaked frequently. These facts push the expectation above a cagey 1–0; Over 2.5 Goals is a sensible middle-ground play that captures both Italy scoring multiple times and Serbia finding at least one route through a stretched defence. A moderate market consensus leans toward multiple goals rather than a single-goal tiddler.
An alternative angle is the upset possibility. Serbia's single goal suggests they rarely threaten, but low-probability shocks happen in tournament football. The market will price Serbia to Win as a longshot; that selection offers the required high odds for a genuinely speculative stake. That view is outlying but internally consistent: a defensive breakdown by Italy or an early Serbia set-piece could flip momentum.
Bringing these threads together, the majority of analysts and the named preview favour an Italian win by more than a one-goal margin, the goals market is tilted toward multiple goals given the contrasting goal records, and a small minority of previews treat a Serbia upset as the only route to big returns — the most balanced approach is to back Italy with a margin-focused line while recognising the small but plausible upside of the longshot upset.
Expect market prices to reflect those priorities in the hours before kick-off.
