Hapoel Be'er Sheva's slightly cleaner roster depth and the one-off nature of the Super Cup make Draw No Bet for the hosts a logical starting point. A single match trophy encourages Hapoel to take the initiative early; their historic edge over Maccabi Tel Aviv and home familiarity tilt the balance, while a Draw No Bet price (1.70) protects against the inevitable swings when both defences show cracks.
The second strand is goals. Both teams arrive with recognised defensive issues — a persistent theme in previews and explicitly noted by apuestasganadas, which tips Both Teams To Score at long odds — and that creates a strong case for Over 2.5 Goals (1.95). When Hapoel push higher up to assert control they leave space behind, and Maccabi's transition game is good enough to exploit those lanes. Over 2.5 also captures late-set-piece goals and a probable second-half intensity spike in a match where substitutions will seek to force openings.
Result and goals markets clash logically: backing Hapoel to win outright (2.10) is complementary but riskier than the safer Draw No Bet route because Maccabi are capable of punishing loose defending. The pricing relationship here is coherent — the DNB is cheaper than the full-win line for the same side.
An alternative angle with asymmetric value appears in BTTS at bigger odds (6.50 in this construction). That market mirrors the narratives around defensive frailty and the apuestasganadas recommendation, but it is the highest-variance play because it requires both teams to score irrespective of who wins.
A corrected-score angle that fits the tempo is 2-1 to Hapoel: it reflects a controlled home performance combined with defensive lapses and occasional breaks from Maccabi. Most tipsters lean toward an open game with goals; the mix of home impetus and mutual defensive weakness therefore favours markets that pay for goals rather than a narrow low-scoring affair. Expect the match to produce clear chances and multiple goals as substitutes and set-pieces shape the late exchanges.
