Hapoel Be'er Sheva's superior attacking numbers shape the primary betting argument. They have 71 goals this season and 227 shots on target compared with Hapoel Tel Aviv's 53 goals and 146 shots on target, so the match profile favours Be'er Sheva to carry the initiative and create the higher-quality chances. That offensive edge supports backing the away win in the match-result market, because Tel Aviv's work-rate at home has not matched Be'er Sheva's chance volume and the visitors convert more often from open play.
The goals market offers a different perspective. Despite Be'er Sheva's firepower, both teams have conceded 31 goals apiece and Hapoel Tel Aviv have kept 14 clean sheets this season versus Be'er Sheva's 12. Those clean sheets point to a realistic probability of a low-to-mid scoring game if Tel Aviv sit deep and force Be'er Sheva to break them down. This tension lifts the appeal of No on BTTS and Under 3.0 Goals lines as viable alternatives to a straight away win — a single Be'er Sheva goal could be decisive rather than a high-scoring exchange.
An alternative angle is the handicap and outright upset market. One reputable preview at apuestasganadas backs Hapoel Be'er Sheva on an Asian handicap, arguing for a clear victory; that makes a -1 handicap attractive at compact odds if one expects Be'er Sheva to convert their volume into multiple goals. Conversely, Hapoel Tel Aviv at higher odds represents a true long-shot: their home organisation and higher clean-sheet tally mean an upset is plausible, especially if Be'er Sheva rotate key players. Market consensus leans toward the visitors, but the coexistence of strong attacking numbers for Be'er Sheva and disciplined defensive returns for Tel Aviv explains why both a straight away win and lower-scoring markets find support.
Betting choices should therefore reflect conviction in Be'er Sheva's ability to win while respecting Tel Aviv's defensive capacity; the clearest single-edge is an away win supported by volume metrics, with handicap or low-scoring variants used to manage risk. The match is likely to be settled by margin rather than a flurry of goals.
